Express Entry Draws: An Analysis

When applying through Express Entry, you submit an online profile with all your details and your CRS score is calculated by the system. The system then puts your application into the applicant pool where it is sorted and ranked against other active applications. The number of active profiles in the Express Entry pool changes every day as draws happen and new applications come in or old applicants leave the pool due to ineligibility or expiry. That’s why your rank in the applicant pool also seems to change regularly.

The Canadian immigration authorities maintain an up-to-date record of the number of candidates in the Express Entry applicant pool and their CRS scores. This information is released regularly to the public after a draw is conducted. Till date, 307 Express Entry draws have been held. The last Express Entry draw happened on July 30, 2024 for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program which is one of the federal immigration programs managed under Express Entry. The CRS cutoff was 510 and 5000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) were issued. One day before, on July 30, 2024, the express Entry draw was held for Provincial Nomination Program (PNP) where 964 ITAs were issued and the CRS cutoff score was 686. Before that, on July 18, 2024, the draw happened for the French Language category where 1800 ITAs were issued with a CRS cutoff score of 400. On July 17, 2024, the draw was held for Canadian Experience Class program where 6300 PR invitations were issued. The CRS cutoff score for this round was 515. After this draw, following information was released about the Express Entry applicant pool:

CRS Cutoff Score Distribution of Candidates in the Express Entry Pool as of July 17, 2024

CRS Cutoff Score Range	Number of Candidates
601-1200	184
501-600	16,968
451-500	60,115
491-500	9,982
481-490	11,852
471-480	15,120
461-470	12,616
451-460	10,545
401-450	52,635
441-450	10,067
431-440	11,020
421-430	9,701
411-420	10,888
401-410	10,959
351-400	54,597
301-350	25,669
0-300	5,567
Total	215,735

The data in the table above gives you information about the total number of applicants in the Express Entry pool some days before the draw happened. The numbers in the table that are not in bold font are a breakdown of the numbers in the bold font above them.

Let’s analyze this table to understand the composition of the Express Entry pool and where you stand in the crowd. This will also help you understand your chances of getting an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for permanent residence (PR). You can also use this data to strategize to better your CRS score.

Key Takeaways

• As of July 17th, 2024, there are 215,735 active profiles in the Express Entry pool. Right now, the maximum number of applicants in the Express Entry pool exist in CRS score range of 451-500.

• The CRS cutoff scores have remained high all through 2024 as compared to previous years. Partly, this is because of the high number of temporary residents in Canada that are eligible under PNPs, thereby increasing the competition. Also, Canada remains a top destination in high demand for newcomers, thereby increasing the number of applicants in the Express Entry pool.

• There are only 184 active applications in the 601 to 1200 CRS score range. Most probably, this is due to the last two draws inviting over 7500 people for PR. Both these draws were program-specific, one on July 16th was done for Provincial Nomination Programs (PNPs) with a CRS cutoff score of 670 that invited 1391 people and the other on July 17th for Canadian Experience Class program with a CRS cutoff score of 515 that invited 6300 people.

• If you look at the CRS score ranges from 350 to 500, you will realize that the number of applicants are more or less equally split between 350-400 range standing at 54,597 applicants, 400-450 range standing at 52,635 applicants, and 450-500 range at 60,115 applicants.

• As compared to last year, the first half of 2024 has seen fewer ITAs being issued by the Canadian immigration authorities. This leads us to believe that the second half of 2024 will try to make up for that gap and issue more ITAs going forward. If this happens, the CRS distribution will change significantly and the cutoff scores will also be impacted.
  

Now, all this information is good only if it helps you get an ITA. To do that, look at your own CRS score and compare it to the applicants in the Express Entry pool. This will give you an idea of where you stand in the crowd and how much more effort you need to put in to get that coveted ITA. If you have a high CRS score and are among those 184 applicants at the top of the pool, you may just need to wait for the next draw. This is a highly competitive score and will land you a provincial nomination, guaranteeing an additional 600 points that will lead to PR in the coming days for sure!

If your projected CRS score is between 500 to 600, you have a competitive score and a decent chance of being invited, especially if you have Canadian work experience. Just look at the CRS cutoff score for the Canadian Experience Class program that happened on July 17th and had a CRS cutoff score of 515. Before that, the cutoff for the same program was 522. However, you should work on making your CRS score more competitive, if you can, since the competition is getting stiffer daily.

A different story applies to people having a projected CRS score between 400 to 500. The cutoffs for the three programs managed under Express Entry may be too much for you, as evidenced by the high cutoffs in last 4-5 draws. However, category-based draws could be a game changer for you. The last cutoff score for French language draw was 400, for healthcare category was 445, and for trade occupations was 436. In addition to low cutoff scores, these categories are super interesting because small effort in improving your score can result in big point jumps, especially if you can get a job offer in Canada or retake your language tests.

Now, the real issue starts if your projected CRS score is less than 400. The CRS cutoff range of 350 to 400 may still have some opportunities but less than 350 is mostly barren. This is where you have a huge number of active profiles competing and not many chances! In this range, maybe you should look at alternate ways of immigrating to Canada, other than Express Entry. To improve your CRS scores and become competitive, you can look at getting additional education, learn a second language or even get a job in Canada. These changes will take time and effort but will also help you achieve your dream of living in Canada.

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Disclaimer:

The content available on this page is for informational purpose only. For professional advice, please book an appointment with our licensed immigration consultants through our website.

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